Market Outlook Before the 16/10 Session: VN-Index Loses the 1,700-Point Mark, Nearby Support at 1,690–1,680
The morning session of 16/10 is likely to open in a choppy state as VNINDEX has just lost the psychological 1,700-point level. The external backdrop remains unfavorable, market liquidity is weak, and persistent net selling by foreign investors continues to fuel cautious sentiment across the board.
Pre-Session Overview
As of 15/10, VNINDEX stood at 1,698.4 points, down 0.4%, with trading volume of 635.7 million units. HNXINDEX fell 2.2% to 259.3 points, while UPCOMINDEX edged up 0.2% to 124.2 points, showing a very clear divergence across the exchanges.
Overnight developments continued to lean negative as the market lost the 1,700-point zone, and cash flow is still waiting for a deeper correction. As a result, any rebound that emerges early in the session may not be sustainable, especially since buying demand has yet to show signs of spreading widely.
Notable Stocks on HOSE
On the gainers' side, several tickers performed better than the broader market, including SMA, SJS and SRC, all of which rose 7.0%. Conversely, SVD and KOS fell 7.0%, while VDP dropped 6.9%, indicating that selling pressure remains present in many individual stocks.
| Ticker | Change |
|---|---|
| SMA | +7.0% |
| SJS | +7.0% |
| SRC | +7.0% |
| SVD | -7.0% |
| KOS | -7.0% |
| VDP | -6.9% |
Liquidity and Cash Flow
HOSE liquidity remained concentrated in the leading trading names such as VIX with 43.3 million shares, SHB with 42.5 million shares, and MBB with 32.6 million shares. Although volume in this group was fairly high, the overall picture still does not show enough improvement to confirm a buy-the-dip sentiment.
This points to a session that is likely to see a technical rebound but lacks consensus. If liquidity does not improve, cash flow will likely continue to be selective, favoring stocks that hold their price bases rather than spreading broadly across the market.
Technical Signals
Among the technical signals that are being assessed more favorably, CMF reached a composite score of 85.4, VLB scored 82.2, and VEA scored 80.7. However, VEA is in overbought territory, so the risk of volatility in the next session could rise significantly if buying demand weakens.
In terms of trend, several tickers such as ORS, PDV, HTV, HMH and SZB are maintaining relatively stable price bases with more positive trend signals. On the other hand, DMX is in oversold territory, while PVP and SAS show signs of being overbought, so their short-term movements warrant close monitoring.
HNX and UPCOM
On the HNX, notable stocks include PJC, up 9.9%, and KST, up 9.4%, while MBG and THD both fell 10.0%. On UPCOM, TSJ rose 14.9% and PEQ gained 14.7%, but MPY dropped 39.7% and FTI fell 32.4%, reflecting the still very strong volatility among small and mid-cap stocks.
With HNXINDEX at 259.3 points and UPCOMINDEX at 124.2 points, the markets on these two exchanges continue to move in their own distinct patterns, not fully in sync with HOSE. This highlights divergence rather than a broad-based spread of cash flow.
Outlook and Risks Before the Session
The nearby support zone for VNINDEX currently sits around 1,690–1,680 points, while the short-term resistance zone is at 1,705–1,715 points. If the rebound fails to break back above this zone, the probability that the market continues to fluctuate weakly remains high.
The biggest risk at this point is still weak liquidity, prolonged net selling by foreign investors, and selling pressure in the oil and gas sector. Conversely, stocks that hold a solid price base and show more positive technical signals may continue to attract selective capital flows early in the session.
The data is for analytical and informational purposes only; it is not investment advice.
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