Market before the October 12 session: VN-Index falls below 1,750 points, cash flow awaits a test of the 1,730-1,735 point support zone
The Monday session on October 12 opens with VNINDEX still trading below the 1,750-point zone. Market sentiment is weighed down by pressure from absorbing new share supply in the banking sector and the sharp divergence seen at the end of last week.
Meanwhile, reports of a forced sell-off of PNJ and heavy net selling by foreign investors in MCH continue to signal caution for large-cap stocks. The index should be watched closely around the nearby support zone of 1,730-1,735 points, while the 1,750-1,755 point area serves as an important psychological resistance level.
Market context: supply risks still remain
Banks announcing capital increases at the same time is adding to the number of newly issued shares, creating pressure to absorb supply across the market. Given their large weight in market capitalization, this group remains the most important variable for the broader index.
Meanwhile, signs of divergence remain clear, with some stocks showing more notable short-term movements, such as PNJ and NVL, along with those that are oversold or showing positive MACD signals, such as DMX, PSI, PVT, and QTC.
International developments and key highlights
- The Vietnamese stock market enters the new week on a cautious note, following a decline below the 1,750-point mark.
- Pressure from new share supply in the banking sector still needs more time to be absorbed.
- Negative news related to PNJ and MCH continues to keep cash flow more restrained in large-cap stocks.
Key technical levels to watch
| Level to watch | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Nearby support | 1,730-1,735 | A zone that must hold to prevent a broader shake-out |
| Psychological resistance | 1,750-1,755 | An important barrier if buying demand improves |
| VN-Index | 1,735.1 | Still below the 1,750-point mark |
| HNX-Index | 261.6 | Up 2.1%, showing divergence between exchanges |
| UPCOM-Index | 124.2 | Down 0.8%, a less positive condition |
Notable stocks
On the HOSE, stocks with strong gains include SHA, NNC, and STG, while those with sharp declines include TPC, DHC, and KOS. Notable liquidity remains concentrated in SHB, NVL, and VIX.
In terms of technical signals, stocks with high composite scores include CMF, VLB, and VEA. This suggests there are still isolated short-term opportunities, although the overall picture for the index still leans toward low-level consolidation and testing of support.
Outlook for the morning session on October 12
The most likely scenario is that the market opens cautiously, fluctuating around the reference level with a high degree of divergence. If cash flow does not spread effectively, VNINDEX is likely to continue testing the 1,730-1,735 point support zone before a clearer rebound emerges.
Conversely, a recovery above the 1,750-1,755 point zone would be the first positive signal that buying demand has improved sufficiently. Until then, the priority remains close monitoring of the banking sector, cash flow, and how large-cap stocks react.